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An inFluenza (Flu) pandemic is an inFluenza strain that spreads rapidly from human to human and affects almost all countries and regions around the world.  A pandemic could occur when a mutated strain of an inFluenza virus appears before humans have an effective vaccine in place.  Because antibodies cannot be created before the inFluenza virus mutates, a mutated strain could cause widespread illness and far more serious conditions among humans than those which would normally occur during a “normal” Flu season.  An inFluenza pandemic can also occur at virtually any time throughout the year.  It is not confined to a “normal” Flu season.

Historically, inFluenza pandemics have occurred every few decades. Three pandemics occurred in the 20^th century, specifically in 1918, 1957 and 1968. Combined, these three pandemics caused an estimated 52 million deaths worldwide.

While it is nearly impossible to determine exactly when the next pandemic will occur, historically pandemics have occurred every few decades. The last major pandemic occurred in 1968 and it is reasonable to expect that another pandemic can occur at any time in the near future.

The main differences between ordinary Flu and a Flu pandemic are the severity and predictability of the two strains. Ordinary Flu occurs every year, roughly during the same time. It is also fairly predictable, allowing time for new vaccines to be produced each year. A Flu pandemic Flu is highly unpredictable. There is no way of knowing when or how the Flu virus will mutate. Thus, it is impossible to develop a vaccine to fight the mutated strain until it appears and is thoroughly analyzed. This process could take many months before a suitable vaccine can be produced in sufficient quantities needed to vaccinate an entire population. Unfortunately, during this time it is highly likely that many people will become affected by the new virus, causing extensive sickness and probably death.

The table below summarizes the major differences between the “ordinary” Flu and a “pandemic” Flu:

Countries around world have health organizations that maintain surveillance programs to quickly identify any pandemic that may occur.  In addition, the United Nations and World Health Organization also maintain surveillance programs to monitor pandemic activity.

Efforts will be made internationally to try to control a pandemic; however, inFluenza is highly infectious and can be easily transferred between individuals and entire populations. Because of this highly contagious nature, it is likely to continue to spread despite the efforts to contain and/or prevent it. 

It has been estimated that initially the pandemic will last for two to four months. However, it is also likely that there will be a second wave of infections shortly after. There is also no way of knowing how many times the infection will mutate once it has migrated to humans.It is highly probable that a pandemic can last up to an entire year or longer.

Everyone is potentially at risk of catching Flu during a pandemic. Few, if any, will have immunity to the virus. Certain groups or age groups may be at greater risk than others; we will not know for certain who they will be until the virus starts circulating.

Based on experience, around one fourth (25%) of the population is likely to develop Flu, although it could be more.

This will depend on several factors such as how virulent the virus proves to be, which age groups are mainly affected, how soon a vaccine is available and in what quantity and how effective antiviral drugs are in treating people.

A Flu pandemic will place considerable pressure on health and social services due to the greatly increased number of patients with inFluenza requiring treatment both in the community and in hospitals, a reduced workforce due to illness, and the general disruption that is likely to occur.

Each pandemic is different and the impact on business cannot be fully established until more is known about how a pandemic is evolving. Absences from work will depend largely on the age group most affected by the virus.  A quarter or more of the working population may have to take days off work at some stage during the pandemic. In addition to absence due to illness, some workers may need time off to care for family members or may have difficulty getting to work.

A Flu pandemic will impact on all sectors of the community through the illness itself and the consequences of staff sickness, travel restrictions, reduced transport and deliveries, etc.

Antiviral drugs are special medicines for the treatment of certain viral infections and are likely to play an important role in treatment during a Flu pandemic. Treatment with antiviral drugs can be expected to shorten the duration of the disease, alleviate symptoms and reduce complications and serious illness. They can also be used to prevent Flu, particularly in the early stages of a pandemic.

Antiviral drugs that are most likely to be of use in a pandemic are generally well tolerated, but on occasion they can cause nausea and vomiting.

Because the virus will be new and not predictable in the way that “ordinary” Flu viruses are. Preparatory work is under way to be in the best possible position to produce vaccines against a pandemic strain as quickly as possible when the need arises; but development of a vaccine will take time and a vaccine will not be available in the early stages of a pandemic.

Based on current international estimates, the vaccine will take at least four to six months to produce. There may be further delays due to unexpected technical difficulties. Once the virus has been identified and a suitable vaccine developed, then large-scale production will begin as quickly as possible.

Other public health and “social distancing” interventions may help to limit or slow the spread of the disease and reduce its impact, especially at the onset of a Flu pandemic. These include measures such as hand washing, limiting non-essential travel and discouraging mass gatherings of people.

There will be regular updates on the television, radio and in the national press, telling people what is happening and what to do. People with mild to moderate symptoms will be advised to stay at home.

Experts believe we should be ready for a pandemic to emerge at any time. However, the avian Flu (often called “bird Flu”) currently affecaffecting poultry and people in Asia, has increased their concern.